Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: The Midterms

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  • Russell Brown, in reply to mark taslov,

    They may not have been official feeds – at least I was getting 'video unavailable'.

    Yeah, the pirate MSNBC one got yanked, but it was easy enough to find another one. It's very lively, but the ads get a bit wearying.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22584 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    For telly-watchers, ABC is on TVNZ Duke. They seem to have every talking head on their staff, and then some.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1270 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell,

    Ouch. This is painful already! McGrath loses KY-6. And early optimism fading fast in FL :(
    USA still deeply divided. Trump will tear us apart - again.

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2083 posts Report Reply

  • Neil,

    So far some gains by the Dems but no huge push back against Trump. It’s going to be a fairly nasty next few years.

    Since Nov 2016 • 263 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    Stressful as. Think I might paint the house for a few hours and check back in then. Although a Republican win of the House is unlikely from the polling leading in, it's not so unlikely that I'd be shocked.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10575 posts Report Reply

  • Zach Bagnall,

    Yep, six more years as expected. America is a strange place.

    Colorado • Since Nov 2006 • 120 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    The Washington Post's graphics give a good idea of what's going on with the House. Dem pickups emerging, but hell, I hope they get there.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22584 posts Report Reply

  • Luke Williamson,

    Dems have lost a Senate seat and House struggling to flip seats. My friends in Philly are just about in tears.

    Warkworth • Since Oct 2007 • 295 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls,

    The ugly American dominates the world, and the ugly Republican dominates America. Ugh.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 302 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    Some premature pessimism here. Stick around for Texas, California, etc.

    Projecting results while people still vote in the same state is a minefield.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1270 posts Report Reply

  • Luke Williamson,

    Agreed, House seats starting to flip now. Up to 4 and they need 20-odd.

    Warkworth • Since Oct 2007 • 295 posts Report Reply

  • Luke Williamson,

    11 flips now and looking good for taking the House.

    Warkworth • Since Oct 2007 • 295 posts Report Reply

  • Hilary Stace,

    Several amazing women and representatives of minorities winning races all over the place. Emily's list has been effective. And in Florida a win for a proposition that people with convictions who have served their time can now vote.But very hard to get around the gerrymandering of electoral districts done a few years ago under the Republicans.

    Wgtn • Since Jun 2008 • 3161 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    Phew, that worked. Fivethirtyeight puts it at 14:1 for the Democrats taking the house. When I went to paint it was only 5:4. But I think that’s normal as the daylight passes across the country. First blue, then red, then blue again. Funny to think that the probability of winning moves around that much, but probabilities are always based on what we know at the time, and throughout the day projections are overpowered by realities, causing the knowledge situation to literally fluctuate. Just how it works.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10575 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming,

    Unfortunately it appears Cruz has held Texistan, but Democrats flipped House seats in Texas, along with their state legislator seats. Cruz may have won in Texas, but overall Dems did, as they were never supposed to be that close, let alone flipping other seats.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2909 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody,

    We're watching Al Jazeera's coverage. We only watch their news as well. It's all I can stomach.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 797 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    Well Fivethirtyeight just collapsed that to 100% chance that the Dems take the house. ABC has called it too.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10575 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls,

    The there-to-give-balance commentariat are denying that there was any blue wave and talking up the GOP winning all the marginal Senate races; ignoring the fact that, with a 9% plus margin to the Democrats, if the US had anything approximating a fair electoral system this would have been a total rout.
    So they held their own in a rigged competition, big deal.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 302 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming,

    Gillum has conceded to De Santis in Florida.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2909 posts Report Reply

  • Hilary Stace, in reply to nzlemming,

    Gillum is a black man from the Democrat left. Might be different next time with more people able to vote. Also as climate change starts to drown Florida.

    Wgtn • Since Jun 2008 • 3161 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to nzlemming,

    but overall Dems did, as they were never supposed to be that close, let alone flipping other seats.

    Yeah, looks like Beto has pulled through quite a few down-ticket wins.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22584 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to BenWilson,

    Funny to think that the probability of winning moves around that much

    I think at one point Nate was trying to explain that his model was being too aggressive. Yeah.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22584 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to nzlemming,

    Gillum has conceded to De Santis in Florida.

    And yet the progress total is a near dead-heat. The Florida Senate is literally 50-50 right now.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22584 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to Hilary Stace,

    Might be different next time with more people able to vote. Also as climate change starts to drown Florida.

    Noting, though, that these largely cancel each other out, as a result of other broken aspects of the American "democratic" system: those most vulnerable to climate change in Florida are ipso facto those least likely to remain in their own district, and least likely to be able to vote (cf. the effect of the post-Katrina diaspora).

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1825 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Russell Brown,

    I think at one point Nate was trying to explain that his model was being too aggressive. Yeah.

    Yes, I don't think that kind of probability based prediction is easy to do when information comes in an order that is not random, but instead has a clear and known pattern.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10575 posts Report Reply

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