Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Earning Confidence

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  • Pete Sime,

    There's a new poll(pdf) from Horizon looking specifically at Dirty Politics and it says in the executive summary:

    While voting intention shifts from poll to poll, National’s level of retention this year of those who said they intended to cast their party vote for the National Party at the next election had been particularly strong in polls conducted by Horizon up to the July/August survey (before the Hager book’s release), at around 92%. In this survey, conducted after the release of the “Dirty Politics” book, National retains only 82% of those who said in July/August they would give their party vote to the National Party.

    Note that around 8% of those who said in the July/August poll they would vote for National are now undecided about which party they will give their party vote to.

    As we saw last night some of those undecideds are going to NZ First and the Conservatives, but it's likely some are truly floating voters and will cross the left/right barrier.

    Dunedin • Since Apr 2008 • 168 posts Report Reply

  • Andrew Geddis,

    although it’s not out of the question that McVicar could pull enough votes from Tremain to let Nash squeak through.

    That would be an upset, given that Chris Tremain is quitting Parliament at this election! National's candidate for Napier is Wayne Walford (which is, apparently, a real name!)

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2007 • 206 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Andrew Geddis,

    That would be an upset, given that Chris Tremain is quitting Parliament at this election! National’s candidate for Napier is Wayne Walford (which is, apparently, a real name!)

    Yup, Wayne v Garth. I've already fixed that one.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22817 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Williams,

    Even with unhelpful boundary changes, Jacinda Ardern could win Auckland Central if Denise Roche can communicate to Green voters that she neither wants or needs their electorate votes.

    I sincerely hope they do. They did so in Wellington Central in 2008 when Grant Robertson first won the seat (by a majority of just 3,000, one he's since doubled). Please let's not, however, relive what Labour didn't do for Jeanette in Coromandel...

    The Greens, I think, are in the unusual -- and unprecedented in our recent political history -- position of making the transition to major party status. In policy terms, that entails moving from principle to practice -- are they there yet?

    I'd agree, but then I'm a paid up member of the Labour Party. Regardless, there's lots to commend about the way the Greens have conducted themselves over the last 3 - 6 years. The like of Julie Ann Genter and Jan Logie, particularly, have been relentless in their advocacy for core Green issues regardless of the reaction (which has often been childish, and I'm thinking of Bennett in particular on Women's Refuge funding).

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    When considering polls, I think it's a useful exercise to compare current predictions with past performance.

    At the same stage of the last election campaign, a Herald DigiPoll had National 7% higher than the 47% they got in the election.

    To be fair, they weren't alone in overestimating National's support (and often, Labour's too). Every single published poll in 2011 - yes, all of them - said that National would be able to govern alone. They couldn't.

    Polls are useful guides, but they are only as good as the reporting of them - which usually leaves a lot to be desired. For example, see tomorrow's Herald (sadly, their form is such that I can confidently say this before Friday's edition is even published).

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1328 posts Report Reply

  • Ben Sinclair,

    Tonight’s TVNZ leaders’ debate is probably David Cunliffe’s best chance to change the public narrative around his party and more so – let’s be frank – around himself.

    He's facing an uphill battle given the moderator.

    New Zealand • Since Aug 2014 • 1 posts Report Reply

  • Myles Thomas,

    Guy Williams is moderating the Auckland Broadcasting Debate on Sunday at 6.30pm - Pioneer Women's Hall, High St, AK CBD

    I'm expecting it to be a bit of a doozy as we have two new extra guests on the panel - Colin Craig and Laila Harre as well as broadcasting specialists from Nat/Lab/Greens. More info is available at www.betterbroadcasting.co.nz

    Auckland • Since Apr 2011 • 130 posts Report Reply

  • Shaun Lott,

    And remember that the margin of error is bigger than the changes in the numbers. Which makes the apparent changes rather more 'noise' than 'signal'.

    Waitakere • Since Aug 2009 • 113 posts Report Reply

  • Myles Thomas, in reply to Shaun Lott,

    Margin of error is correct at the 50% point, it drops relative to distance from 50%, so when a party polls around 3-5% margin for error would be less than .5%. Yet another way reporters fail to correctly report polls.

    Auckland • Since Apr 2011 • 130 posts Report Reply

  • Timmy H,

    Is the main debate being streamed at all? I'm in the US at the mo so also hopefully not geoblocked.

    Since Feb 2008 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Timmy H,

    Is the main debate being streamed at all? I’m in the US at the mo so also hopefully not geoblocked.

    Yes. Not geoblocked and available here.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22817 posts Report Reply

  • Pete Sime, in reply to Timmy H,

    Don't know about geoblocking, you might have to use Hola but the One News twitter account said it would stream from http://tvnz.co.nz/news

    Dunedin • Since Apr 2008 • 168 posts Report Reply

  • Timmy H,

    Thanks guys.

    Since Feb 2008 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • Some Stats, in reply to Myles Thomas,

    If p is the proportion and n is the sample size, the margin of error is 2*sqrt(p*(1-p)/n). So at 3% (that is p = 0.03) in a poll of 1000 people (n = 1000), you get a margin of error of about 1.1%.

    Stats Chat has a table giving margin of error at various levels of support. Notice that the confidence interval is not symmetric. On that page there is also a table that gives confidence intervals taking into account the lack of independent sampling (basically, they get a bit wider).

    A useful rule of thumb to decide if different results in different polls show a real difference or simply noise is multiply the margin of error by sqrt(2). So around 50%, a shift in poll numbers has to be about 4.5% before you would say it is a real shift.

    Auckland • Since Aug 2014 • 9 posts Report Reply

  • Brodie Davis,

    Has anyone setup a youtubedoubler style page for this? to stream both tvnz and greenroom at the same time on the same screen?

    Since Aug 2008 • 54 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    The Herald poll is up already. Labour slumps further. This is just getting cruel.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22817 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    "Mr Key's personal popularity is up 3 points to 67.8 per cent."

    I hereby retract all comments I made during the Presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, all smug and mocking, along the lines of "Only in America ..."

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1328 posts Report Reply

  • Some Stats, in reply to Russell Brown,

    The Herald poll is up already. Labour slumps further.

    Of course, the results show no significant change in Labour's support from last week. Indeed, only the change in the Internet Mana support is near being statistically significant.

    Auckland • Since Aug 2014 • 9 posts Report Reply

  • Brodie Davis,

    Just from reading the PDF from HorizonResearch I now understand where most of nationals support comes from.

    The age tables are mostly telling, with them sitting in low 30% votes up to the 55-64yr bracket where they jump to 40% and up to 48% in the 65-74 bracket.

    So like every other country on the planet, we are run by old men, for old (white?) men.

    Green party is roughly the opposite, with 41% of the vote in the 18-24 year bracket.

    pdf is here http://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/attachments/docs/horizon-research-political-conduct-survey-repo.pdf

    Since Aug 2008 • 54 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Some Stats,

    Of course, the results show no significant change in Labour’s support from last week. Indeed, only the change in the Internet Mana support is near being statistically significant.

    Yes. I've been thinking about that.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22817 posts Report Reply

  • chris,

    Great stuff! I was impressed by Cunliffe, Mike Hosking seemed impartial enough considering his circumstances, but it’s just noise when people are talking over one another, perhaps someone a bit more authoritative could rein that in more ably.

    Joint Deputy Prime Ministers?! Indicative of the more progressive approach. I’m trying to enroll for the first time since 2002. Cool to put a face to Jolisa and to see you again Sacha. Nice work Russell and co.

    Mawkland • Since Jan 2010 • 1302 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to simon g,

    I hereby retract all comments I made during the Presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, all smug and mocking, along the lines of “Only in America …”

    It would be fair to point out that unlike the United States, we don't directly elect our executive branch of government. Back in the day, you might be surprised how many I know had no particular affection for Helen Clark but you know... Labour wasn't doing a terribly bad job on the whole.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to chris,

    Cool to put a face to Jolisa and to see you again Sacha. Nice work Russell and co.

    Thanks. It was was very seat-of-the-pants, but it worked pretty well. It helped that the director, Matt Barrett, was our director for most of Media7 and Media3, so we kind of knew each other's rhythm. And I only discovered afterwards that while I could hear him (mostly) he at no point was able to hear me. He just cut on what he could see.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22817 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to chris,

    cheers. fascinating process to watch, and I lucked into chatting with a feisty and forthright Lucy Lawless off-camera during the show. She reckoned Key looked like his mind was already on his next international job..

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19705 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to chris,

    Mike Hosking seemed impartial enough considering ....

    ...considering he got enough barbs and digs in.
    Hosking can't moderate to save himself, let alone the country!

    and Key keeps on telling us what Labour will do, it is so patronising and passive aggressive and such a waste of air and airtime, he should STFU and bang on about what he'll do precisely , not broadly daub the other party in a bad light.

    I thought Cunliffe kept his cool and Key looked bitter and drained.
    - but I also fell asleep before the end...

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7939 posts Report Reply

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